Forecast 2025: China Adjusts Course

New report from MacroPolo projects a more capable but more outwardly cautious China by 2025 

CHICAGO—MacroPolo, the in-house think tank of the Paulson Institute, released “Forecast 2025: China Adjusts Course,” one of the most comprehensive outlooks on China’s medium-term trajectory. This forecast of the world’s second-largest economy is built around projections of China’s economy, politics, technology, and energy.

Overall, the forecast holds a net bullish view of China’s trajectory, despite considerable domestic constraints and a strained external environment. The forecast is predicated on several macro assumptions and key factors that are likely to determine China’s behavior over the five-year period. But it is precisely the combined internal needs and external pressure that will likely prompt China to respond, adjusting its policy in ways that are unexpected today.

“To get China policy right, we need to get China right first. And it has been my belief that there is not enough “China” in the latest debates. This was what animated this effort, and we hope it offers some clarity and that it will be useful in shaping your thinking on China over the medium term,” says Damien Ma, Director and co-founder of MacroPolo.

This forecast coincides with China’s upcoming 14th Five-Year Plan, which is expected to be released before the end of the year. Like all such plans, it will define the priorities and set a course for where China intends to go. This particular plan is imbued with more significance than usual, because it is being touted as the pivotal opening chapter for achieving Xi Jinping’s 2035 national rejuvenation goals.

Link to Full Report


About MacroPolo
MacroPolo is the in-house think tank of the Paulson Institute in Chicago. We decode China’s economic arrival with our incisive, market-relevant analysis, and creative research products. At MacroPolo, we are building a truly 21st century think tank. Instead of long research papers, we specialize in thoughtfully designed digital interactives as well as dynamic content and databases. Our multinational team of experts provides timely commentary, valuable insights, and best-in-class research to market participants, corporate leaders, and policymakers. Our work spans three core areas: economics, technology, and politics. Learn more at and follow us on Twitter @MacroPoloChina.

About the Paulson Institute
The Paulson Institute is a non-partisan, independent “think and do tank” dedicated to fostering a US-China relationship that serves to maintain global order in a rapidly evolving world. Our focus on US-China is dictated by the reality that it is the most consequential bilateral relationship in the world. We often operate at the intersection of economics, financial markets, environmental protection, and policy advocacy, in part by promoting balanced and sustainable economic growth. Founded in 2011 by former Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson, Jr., the Institute is based in Chicago with offices in Washington and Beijing. Follow us on Twitter @PaulsonInst.

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