Advancing sustainable growth in the United States and China

Climate Change, Air Quality and the Economy: Integrating Policy for China’s Economic and Environmental Prosperity – References

 

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[3] Teng Fei, “The True Cost of Coal,” Natural Resources Defense Council, November 6, 2014, accessed at http://www.nrdc.cn/coalcap/console/Public/Uploads/2014/11/06/报告:2012煤炭的真实成本.pdf

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[5] Ma Jun, “PM2.5 Emissions Reduction Economics Policy,” China Economic Publishing House, 2014. See part 1, chapter 3.

[6] Reducing sulfur emissions increased emissions of carbon dioxide due to the power consumption of emissions control equipment. Mao Xianqiang, “Co-control planning and its Applications,” Center for Global Environmental Policy (CGEP), School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, September 28, 2014.

[7] Sulfur, nitrogen oxides, ammonia and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) react in the atmosphere to form secondary PM2.5. Researchers believe that by reducing only sulfur emissions between 2005 and 2010, ambient PM2.5 levels in East China were higher than would have been the case, due to complex chemical mixing and PM2.5 formation. For a review, see Shuxiao Wang, et al., “Impact Assessment of Ammonia Emissions on Inorganic Aerosols in East China Using Response Surface Modeling Technique,” Journal of Environmental Science and Technology, 45, 2011, accessed at http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/es2022347

[8] For estimates of improved power sector dispatch cost savings, see Energy Innovation and Paulson Institute, forthcoming.

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[207] Ryan Rutkowski, “Service Sector Reform in China,” Peterson Institute for International Economics, January 2015, accessed at http://www.piie.com/publications/pb/pb15-2.pdf. See also Nicholas Lardy, “Markets over Mao: The Rise of Private Business in China,” Washington: Peterson Institute for International Economics, 2014.

[208] Ma Jun, PM2.5减排的经济政策, 2014. See section 2.

[209] Ma Jun, “PM2.5减排的经济政策,” 2014.

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[223] Zhu Liu et al., “Embodied Energy Use in China’s Industrial Sectors,” Energy Policy, 49, 2012, accessed at http://scholar.harvard.edu/files/zhu/files/embodied_energy_use_in_chinas_industrial_sectors.pdf.

[224] “China Statistical Yearbook 2013,” China Bureau of Statistics, 2014, accessed at http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/2013/indexeh.htm. See Consumption of Energy by Sector 2011: transport is around 8%.

[225] Candace Dunn, “China is now the world’s largest net importer of petroleum and other liquid fuels,” U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, March 24, 2014, accessed at http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=15531.

[226] Lananh Nguyen, “China Seen Overtaking U.S. as World’s Biggest Oil User,” Bloomberg News, November 12, 2014, accessed at http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-12/china-seen-overtaking-u-s-as-world-s-biggest-oil-user.html.

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[228] “China Motorists Exceed 300 Million as Cities Struggle,” Bloomberg News, November 28, 2014, accessed at http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-28/china-motorists-surpass-300-million-as-cities-struggle-to-cope.html.

[229] Tian Wu et al., “Analysis of Future Vehicle Energy Demand in China Based on a Gompertz Function Method and Computable General Equilibrium Model,” Energies 2014, 7, 7454-7482, 2014, accessed at www.mdpi.com/journal/energies. See figure 8 for declining vehicle demand growth.

[230] Yunshi Wang et al., “Will China’s Vehicle Population Grow Even Faster than Forecasted?” Access, Fall 2012, accessed at http://www.uctc.net/access/41/access41-chinafleet.pdf. See page 33.

[231] Christopher DeMorro, “China To Punish Automakers That Don’t Meet Fuel Economy Standards,” Cleantechnica, October 22, 2014, accessed at http://cleantechnica.com/2014/10/22/china-punish-automakers-dont-meet-fuel-economy-standards/.

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[233] Axel Krieger et al., “Recharging China’s electric-vehicle aspirations,” McKinsey & Company, July 2012, accessed at http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/energy_resources_materials/recharging_chinas_electric-vehicle_aspirations. “Despite a concerted effort by the government and domestic automakers, the expected surge in electric-vehicle production and sales has not occurred. Automakers produced just 6,000 battery-electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid-electric vehicles in 2011, taking the industry just a fraction of the way to the half-million units of production capacity the government had originally expected for 2015.”

[234] While some critics of EVs cite China’s high coal use as an impediment to using EVs for emissions gains, the LBNL study shows increased renewable penetration results in reduced emissions under a scenario with high EV market penetration. David Fridley et al., “China Energy and Emissions Paths to 2030,” Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, LBNL-4866E, August 2012, accessed at http://eaei.lbl.gov/sites/all/files/lbl-4866e-rite-modelaugust2012.pdf.

[235]  “国务院办公厅关于印发能源发展战略: 行动计划(2014-2020年)的通知” [State Council Office Notice on Releasing the Energy Development Strategy Action Plan (2014-2020)] China State Council Work Office, November 19, 2014, accessed at http://www.gov.cn/zhengce/content/2014-11/19/content_9222.htm. “大力发展城市公共交通,加强城市步行和自行车交通系统建设,提高公共出行和非机动出行比例。”

[236] Lin Jiang et al., “The Race Is On: China Kickstarts its Clean Economy,” ClimateWorks, October 2011, accessed at http://www.climateworks.org/imo/media/doc/Knowledge%20Series%20China%20Clean%20Economy.pdf. “It is a marked contrast to the typical Chinese urban design of “superblocks” composed of huge apartment towers surrounded by wide avenues and freeways. “Chinese cities are typically developed around superblocks and central business districts, which creates sprawl, delays, and gridlock,” Calthorpe says.”

[237] Peter Calthorpe et al., “Transit Oriented Development in China – A Manual of Land-use and Transportation for Low Carbon Cities,” Calthorpe Associates, 2014, accessed at http://www.calthorpe.com/publications/transit-oriented-development-china-manual-land-use-and-transportation-low-carbon-cities; “China Needs More People-Centered Compact Cities,” China Urban Initiative, September 2, 2013, accessed at http://www.urbanchinainitiative.org/en/content/details_19_47.html.

[238] “China Unveils Urbanization Plan,” Xinhua, March 16, 2014, accessed http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/china/2014-03/16/c_133190495.htm.

[239] Zhou Nan et al., China’s Energy and Carbon Emissions Outlook to 2050,” Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, LBNL-4472E, April 2011, accessed at http://china.lbl.gov/sites/all/files/lbl-4472e-energy-2050april-2011.pdf.

[240] Hermann Amecke, “Buildings Energy Efficiency in China, Germany, and the United States,” Climate Policy Initative, April 2013, accessed at http://climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/Buildings-Energy-Efficiency-in-China-Germany-and-the-United-States.pdf. J Eom et al., “China’s Building Energy Use: A Long-Term Perspective based on a Detailed Assessment,” Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 2012, accessed at http://www.pnnl.gov/main/publications/external/technical_reports/PNNL-21073.pdf.

[241] Shui Bin, “Third Parties in the Implementation of Building Energy Codes in China,” American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy, Spring 2012, accessed at http://www.imt.org/uploads/resources/files/GBPNChina3rdPartyFinal.pdf.

[242] Shui Bin and Li Jun, “Building Energy Efficiency Policies in China,” Global Buildings Performance Network, July 2012, accessed at http://www.gbpn.org/sites/default/files/08.%20China%20Report_0.pdf. See page 54. Lixuan Hong et al., “Modeling China’s Building Floor-Area Growth and the Implications for Building Materials and Energy Demand,” Americans Council for Energy Efficient Economy (ACEEE), 2014, accessed at http://aceee.org/files/proceedings/2014/data/papers/10-230.pdf.   “This figure is expected to increase to 582 million m2 by 2015, and the planned retrofit areas in transition urban areas will be 50 million m2 by 2015.”

[243] Shui Bin and Li Jun, “Building Energy Efficiency Policies in China,” Global Buildings Performance Network, July 2012, accessed at http://www.gbpn.org/sites/default/files/08.%20China%20Report_0.pdf. See page 43.

[244] Shui Bin and Li Jun, “Building Energy Efficiency Policies in China,” Global Buildings Performance Network, July 2012, accessed at http://www.gbpn.org/sites/default/files/08.%20China%20Report_0.pdf. See page 43.

[245] Shui Bin and Li Jun, “Building Energy Efficiency Policies in China,” Global Buildings Performance Network, July 2012, accessed at http://www.gbpn.org/sites/default/files/08.%20China%20Report_0.pdf.

[246] Shui Bin, “Third Parties in the Implementation of Building Energy Codes in China,” American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy, Spring 2012, accessed at http://www.imt.org/uploads/resources/files/GBPNChina3rdPartyFinal.pdf. Shui Bin and Steven Nadel, “How Does China Achieve a 95% Compliance Rate for Building Energy Codes?: A Discussion about China’s Inspection System and Compliance Rates,” American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy, 2012, accessed at http://aceee.org/files/proceedings/2012/data/papers/0193-000261.pdf. For conclusion about quality of enforcement and compliance rates, see page 11.

[247] Wei Feng et al., “Evaluation of Energy Savings of the New Chinese Commercial Building Energy Standard,” ACEEE Summer Study on Energy Efficiency in Buildings, 2014, accessed at https://www.aceee.org/files/proceedings/2014/data/papers/4-761.pdf.

[248] Zhang Xiaoling et al., “Feasibility Study on Promoting Passive Residential Housing in China,” Energy Foundation China, December 20, 2012, accessed at http://www.efchina.org/Attachments/Report/reports-20131220-zh/%E8%A2%AB%E5%8A%A8%E5%BC%8F%E5%B1%85%E4%BD%8F%E5%BB%BA%E7%AD%91%E5%9C%A8%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E6%8E%A8%E5%B9%BF%E7%9A%84%E5%8F%AF%E8%A1%8C%E6%80%A7%E7%A0%94%E7%A9%B6.pdf.

[249] Zhou Nan, et al., “Unlocking Energy Savings in Buildings,” Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and Rocky Mountain Institute, paper presented at the Fourth Annual Cities of the Future Conference, Beijing, China, November 11, 2014.

[250] “China’s Green Revolution: Prioritizing Technologies to Achieve Energy and Environmental Sustainability,” McKinsey & Company, 2009, accessed at http://www.mckinsey.com/client_service/sustainability/latest_thinking/greenhouse_gas_abatement_cost_curves. See page 62.

[251] David Stanway, “China Falling Behind on 2020 Hydro Goals as Premier Urges New Dam Building,” Reuters, March 10, 2014, accessed at http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/03/10/china-parliament-hydropower-idUKL3N0M70VN20140310.

[252] Tim Buckley, “Wind energy surges in China, as demand for coal fades,” Reneweconomy, August 28, 2014, accessed at http://reneweconomy.com.au/2014/chinas-continued-growth-wind-farms-78668. “China already has the world’s largest wind farm installed base, with 98.6GW as of June 2014…” “Installed Solar PV Module Industry Capacity to Grow Globally Until 2020 but With Small Annual Additions,” PRNewswire, November 2014, accessed at http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/installed-solar-pv-module-industry-capacity-to-grow-globally-until-2020-but-with-small-annual-additions-281581821.html. Tim Clover, “China to top 100 GW PV capacity by 2018, says NPD Solarbuzz analyst,” PV Magazine, September 2, 2014, accessed at http://www.pv-magazine.com/news/details/beitrag/china-to-top-100-gw-pv-capacity-by-2018–says-npd-solarbuzz-analyst_100016295/#axzz3KL7ezgsQ.

[253] Michael Davidson, “Transforming China’s Grid: Sustaining the Renewable Energy Push,” The Energy Collective, September 24, 2013, accessed at http://theenergycollective.com/michael-davidson/279091/transforming-china-s-grid-sustaining-renewable-energy-push.

[254] “China Plans 100 GW Wind Power Capacity in 2015- Report,” Reuters, December 15, 2011, accessed at http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/12/15/china-renewables-idUKL3E7NF0T120111215. “发改委透露风电2015年装机规划仅1亿千瓦”[NDRC Reveals 100 GW Planned for Wind Capacity Installations by 2015], Yicai, Dec. 1, 2011, accessed at http://www.yicai.com/news/2011/12/1241485.html.  John Parnell, “China Extends Distributed Solar Target to 20 GW by 2015,” PV-Tech, October 21, 2013, accessed at http://www.pv-tech.org/news/china_extends_distributed_solar_target_to_20gw_by_2015.

[255] “国务院办公厅关于印发能源发展战略: 行动计划(2014-2020年)的通知,” China State Council Work Office, November 19, 2014, accessed at http://www.gov.cn/zhengce/content/2014-11/19/content_9222.htm.

[256] “国务院办公厅关于印发能源发展战略: 行动计划(2014-2020年)的通知,” China State Council Work Office, November 19, 2014, accessed at http://www.gov.cn/zhengce/content/2014-11/19/content_9222.htm.

[257] Taryn Fransen et al., “U.S. China Climate Agreement: By the Numbers,” WRI, November 20, 2014, accessed at http://www.wri.org/blog/2014/11/numbers-china-us-climate-agreement.

[258] Bai Rongchun et al., “Policy Study: Gas-fired Power Generation in China (Synthesis Report),” Understanding China Energy, March 2014, accessed at http://www.understandchinaenergy.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/policy-study-gas-fired-power-generation.pdf. See page 5.

[259] “Lessons Learned: A Path Toward Responsible Development of China’s Shale Gas Resources,” National Resources Defense Council, August 2012, accessed at http://www.nrdc.cn/phpcms/userfiles/download/201208/16/Lessons%20Learned%20-%20A%20Path%20Toward%20Responsible%20Development%20of%20China%E2%80%99s%20Shale%20Gas%20Resources.pdf, pages 5-7. Mark Green, “MIT: The Facts on Fracking Methane Emissions,” The Energy Collective, November 29, 2012, accessed at http://theenergycollective.com/mark-green/149821/mit-facts-fracking-methane-emissions; See also Mat Hope, “Explained: Fugitive methane emissions from natural gas production,” July 3, 2014, accessed at http://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2014/07/explained-fugitive-methane-emissions-and-natural-gas-production/.

[260] “Technically Recoverable Shale Oil and Shale Gas Resources: An Assessment of 137 Shale Formations in 41 Countries Outside the United States,” U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, June 10, 2013, accessed at http://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/worldshalegas/. See Table 6.

[261] David Sandalow et al., “Meeting China’s Shale Gas Goals,” draft for public release, September 2014.

[262] David Sandalow et al., “Meeting China’s Shale Gas Goals,” Working Draft for Public Release, September 2014, accessed at http://energypolicy.columbia.edu/sites/default/files/energy/China%20Shale%20Gas_WORKING%20DRAFT_Sept%2011_0.pdf.

[263] Xizhou Zhou, “The Long and Winding Road Ahead: Shale Gas Development in China,” IHS CERA, March 15, 2013, accessed at http://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/Shale%20Gas%20in%20China_CERA_Zhou_publish.pdf. See page 6.

[264] “国务院关于印发能源发展“十二五”规划的通知 [State Council releases Energy Development 12th Five-Year Plan Notice],” China State Council, January 1, 2013, accessed at http://www.gov.cn/zwgk/2013-01/23/content_2318554.htm. See Section 3. “China imports more natural gas in 2013,” Xinhua, February 3, 2014, accessed at http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/china/2014-02/03/c_133091347.htm.

[265] Anthony Yuen et al., “The Unimaginable: Peak Coal in China,” Citibank, September 3, 2013, accessed at https://ia801002.us.archive.org/34/items/801597-citi-the-unimaginable-peak-coal-in-china/801597-citi-the-unimaginable-peak-coal-in-china.pdf.

[266] “The Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan,” China State Council, September 10, 2013, accessed at http://www.gov.cn/zwgk/2013-09/12/content_2486773.htm.

[267]《京津冀及周边地区落实大气污染防治行动计划实施细则》[Detailed Regulations for Implementation of the Action Plan for Air Pollution Prevention and Control in Jing-Jin-Ji and Surrounding Regions], State Council, September 17, 2013, accessed at http://www.mep.gov.cn/gkml/hbb/bwj/201309/t20130918_260414.htm. Coal consumption figures for 2012 taken from Calvin Quek, “China’s War on Pollution,” Greenpeace, June 10, 2014. See page 14.

[268] Calculation based on absolute decreases for four provinces divided by 2012 consumption figures: [13+10+40+20]/[22.7+53+313.6+402.3]=10.5%.

[269] Calvin Quek, “China’s War on Pollution,” Greenpeace, June 10, 2014. See page 14.

[270] Li Shuo and Lauri Myllyvirta, “The End of China’s Coal Boom,” Greenpeace Asia, April 11, 2014, accessed at http://www.greenpeace.org/international/Global/international/briefings/climate/2014/The-End-of-Chinas-Coal-Boom.pdf. See page 5.

[271]  “国务院办公厅关于印发能源发展战略: 行动计划(2014-2020年)的通知,” China State Council Work Office, November 19, 2014, accessed at http://www.gov.cn/zhengce/content/2014-11/19/content_9222.htm. For 2014 consumption of 3.9 billion standard tons of coal, see China Water Risk, accessed January 17, 2015, at http://chinawaterrisk.org/notices/coal-share-below-65-in-2014-coal-tax-imminent/.

[272] “国务院关于印发能源发展“十二五”规划的通知 [State Council releases Energy Development 12th Five-Year Plan Notice],” China State Council, Jan. 1, 2013, accessed at http://www.gov.cn/zwgk/2013-01/23/content_2318554.htm. See Section 3.

[273] “煤电节能减排升级与改造行动计划 (2014—2020年) [Coal Power Efficiency Emissions Reduction Upgrading and Improvement Action Plan, 2014-2020],” National Development and Reform Commission, Number 2093, Sept. 12, 2014, accessed at http://www.nea.gov.cn/2014-09/22/c_133661923.htm. See page 2.”

[274] “能源十三五初定“五基两带”格局 可再生能源补贴设总额限制”[Preliminary Drafts of the 13th Five-Year Plan for Energy Suggests that Renewable Energy Subsidies will be Capped within China’s “Five Bases, Two Strips” Region], BJX, September 29, 2014, accessed at http://news.bjx.com.cn/html/20140929/551243.shtml.

[275] “China 2050 high renewable energy penetration scenario and roadmap study,” China National Renewable Energy Center and Energy Research Institute of National Development and Reform Commission, April 20, 2015, accessed at http://www.rff.org/Documents/Events/150420-Zhongying-ChinaEnergyRoadmap-Slides.pdf.

[276] Kevin Jianjun Tu, “China’s Plan to Cap Coal Consumption and Production Needs Political Accountability and Accurate Statistical Reporting to Succeed,” China Oil Trader, January 28, 2013, accessed at http://www.chinaoiltrader.com/?p=364. See also Jonathan E. Sinton, “Accuracy and Reliability of China’s Energy Statistics,” Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, September 14, 2001, accessed at http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/5q49h07k.

[277] For estimates of improved power sector dispatch cost savings, see Energy Innovation and Paulson Institute, forthcoming.

[278] Johannes Bollen et al., “Local Air Pollution and Global Climate Change: A Combined Cost-benefit Analysis,” Resource and Energy Economics, 31: 161-181, 2009, accessed at http://isiarticles.com/bundles/Article/pre/pdf/23480.pdf.

[279] David Milborrow, “WindEconomics: Cost of wind continues to fall,” Windpower Monthly, September 30, 2014, accessed at http://www.windpowermonthly.com/article/1314297/windeconomics-cost-wind-continues-fall. Cathy Proctor, “Solar power prices are dropping fast, NREL says,” Denver Business Journal, October 20, 2014, accessed at http://www.bizjournals.com/denver/blog/earth_to_power/2014/10/solar-power-prices-aredropping-fast-nrel-says.html.

[280] “World Energy Consumption: China and BRICS Slow, While the USA Restart,” EnerData, August 7, 2014, accessed at http://www.enerdata.net/enerdatauk/press-and-publication/energy-news-001/world-energy-consumption-china-and-brics-slow-while-usa-restart_29687.html.